Reliable forecasts of heat-health emergencies at least one week in advance

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Source: Nature Medicine

Original: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-025-04123-6...

Published: 2025-12-03

A study published in the journal Nature Medicine estimates that there will be more than 181,000 heat-related deaths in Europe between 2022 and 2024, with 62,775 deaths in 2024[1]. The research was carried out on a sample of 654 regions in 32 European countries, covering 539 million people[1]. Scientists have developed a new generation of early warning systems based on the effect of heat, which enable a reliable prediction of medical emergencies at least a week in advance[1]. These predictions also work for highly vulnerable regions and population groups[1]. The system would enable the provision of tailored information and alerts on heat-health emergencies at a time relevant to stakeholders so that they can take effective action to reduce preventable deaths[1]. According to the research team, the adoption of this system by public health agencies could significantly contribute to protecting the population from the effects of extreme temperatures.