Taxation of foods high in fat, sugar, and sodium in India: A modelling study of health and economic impacts

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Source: PLOS Medicine

Original: https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1004572...

Published: 2026-01-05T14:00:00Z

The study modeled the impact of a higher tax on foods high in fat, sugar and sodium (HFSS) in India on health and health care costs. On average, 9.9% of the population's daily energy intake comes from HFSS foods as defined by the Food Safety Authority of India in 2022. The model suggests that the introduction of a 40% GST on these foods would lead to a permanent reduction in BMI of 0.18 kg/m² per person on average and a decrease in daily sodium intake of 45.8 mg. Over 30 years, the annual incidence of selected diseases could be reduced by an average of 1.72% and approximately 0.63 million disability-adjusted life-years would be avoided annually for coronary heart disease, diabetes, chronic kidney disease and stroke. The model also estimates a reduction in total health care spending of $578 million to $624 million per year. Higher-income groups consuming more HFSS foods would have a greater absolute health benefit. At the same time, the tax would bring about a 92% increase in food and beverage tax revenue, with only a small increase in household spending of about 1%. The authors caution that the model only captures the effects of changes in energy and sodium intake and does not account for other possible trends in increasing disease risk.