The study developed and validated a predictive nomogram model to predict vaginal delivery in pregnant women with fetal growth restriction (FGR) at term after labor induction. A retrospective cohort study included 507 singleton pregnancies with FGR at Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital from October 2017 to December 2022 where a Cook double balloon was used for induction. The cohort was divided into a training group (75%, n=380) to identify independent factors using multilogistic regression and a validation group (25%, n=127). Independent factors were age, significant margin, and Bishop score after cervical ripening with Cook's double balloon. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.811 (95% CI: 0.757–0.865) in the training group and 0.760 (95% CI: 0.669–0.860) in the validation group. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed no difference between predicted and observed results (P > 0.050). The clinical decision curve showed the greatest net benefit at threshold probabilities of 0.20 to 0.95, exceeding 0.40. The model serves to inform patients about the chance of vaginal delivery and the basis for personalized clinical strategies.