A retrospective study analyzed 78 patients with mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) with a mean follow-up of 40 months, where the median progression-free survival (PFS) was 32 months and the median overall survival (OS) was 48 months. Poor PFS was associated with increased β2-MG, Ann Arbor stage III-IV, low albumin (<35 g/L), high SUVmax (≥11), decreased T cells (<70.42%), decreased CD4+ T cells (<34.63%), and increased NK cells (≥8.37%). Poor OS was linked to pleomorphic and blastoid subtypes, albumin below 35 g/l and high SUVmax (≥11). Multivariate analysis confirmed high SUVmax (≥11) as an independent predictor of poor PFS and OS. Using XGBoost algorithms, models were developed highlighting five key factors: SUVmax, LDH, IL-2, TNF-α and CD4+ T cells. Based on these features, the new immune prognostic model divided patients into high-risk and low-risk groups, with better discriminating ability compared to MIPI and MIPI-C. The model integrates immune factors with clinical features to improve the prognostic assessment of MCL.