Key predictors of 30-day mortality in non-cardiac surgery: development, key risk factors, and calibration of a risk model

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Source: Frontiers Medicine

Original: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2026.1749782...

Published: 2026-01-30T00:00:00Z

The study analyzed data from 7,528 patients aged ≥18 years who underwent non-cardiac surgery at a tertiary care hospital between January and August 2022, with 76 patients (1.0%) dying within 30 days. The researchers identified independent predictors of 30-day mortality, which included preoperative ventilatory support (odds ratio 8.76), postoperative sepsis (5.86), postoperative myocardial infarction (26.35), and cardiac arrest (57.9). Based on these factors, a nomogram was developed - a graphic tool for the individual assessment of the risk of death within 30 days after surgery. The nomogram showed good calibration at lower levels of risk, although it slightly overestimated risk at higher probabilities. The area under the receiver operating characteristic indicated the excellent ability of the model to discriminate between higher and lower risk patients. The authors recommend external validation of the model and its refinement for wider clinical applicability in perioperative risk stratification in non-cardiac surgery.