Study Warns of Large Increase in New HIV Cases in U.S. if Ryan White Program Ends

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Source: MedPage Today

Original: https://www.medpagetoday.com/meetingcoverage/croi/120084...

Published: Fri, 27 Feb 2026 13:46:49 -0500

The study warns that ending funding for the Ryan White HIV/AIDS program in July 2025 would lead to 75,436 additional HIV infections by 2030 in 31 high-burden US cities, a 49% increase (95% CrI: 19,251 to 134,175 infections).[1][2] The program provides care to more than half of people living with HIV in the US and, with antiretroviral therapy, allows for a normal life expectancy without transmission of the virus.[1] In the termination scenario, viral suppression would decrease from 74% in 2025 to 49% in 2026.[2] There would be a 19% increase in infections at 18 months of service interruption and a 38% increase at 42 months.[1] The increase would range from 9% in Riverside, California to 110% in Baltimore, Maryland.[1] A conservative analysis estimated 34,051 additional infections (95% CrI: 23,902 to 45,147).[1] The study used the Johns Hopkins Epidemiologic and Economic Model to simulate epidemics in 31 cities through 2030.[2] Estimates of loss of viral suppression are based on a survey of clinic directors and health officials.[1][2]