County Year Informatics Model for Annual and Cumulative Unique Lung Cancer Screening Eligibility in Maryland, 2026 to 2045

The study created a mathematical model to estimate the number of Maryland residents who will be eligible for lung cancer screening using low-dose computed tomography between 2026 and 2045. The model accounted for age, sex, ethnicity, smoking history, and geographic location. According to USPSTF 2021 criteria, approximately 238,346 residents were eligible in 2026 and approximately 245,326 in 2045. Over 20 years, a total of 768,668 unique individuals would be eligible. Expanded ACS 2023/2024 criteria increased eligible numbers to 314,616 in 2026 and 902,796 over 20 years. Researchers found that planning screening programs should use cumulative counts of unique individuals rather than annual prevalence rates. Precise modeling of pack-years and quit-years of smoking significantly affects resource allocation across individual counties.