Construction of a nomogram model to predict arteriosclerosis in middle-aged and elderly community dwellers: insights from a cohort study

A research team developed and validated a predictive tool for identifying arteriosclerosis in middle-aged and elderly community dwellers. The study included 4107 participants over 40 years of age, divided into a derivation group (2875 subjects) and a validation group (1232 subjects). During an average follow-up period of 3.25 years, 1688 subjects (41.0%) were diagnosed with arteriosclerosis. Independent risk factors included age, BMI, hypertension, triglyceride levels, glycosylated hemoglobin, sex, and fasting blood glucose. The model demonstrated high accuracy with an area under the ROC curve of 0.811 for the derivation cohort and 0.816 for the validation cohort. The resulting nomogram model may help physicians in early detection and intervention of arteriosclerosis.