State-Level Adult Obesity by Race and Ethnicity

Ms. DeCleene and her colleagues presented a methodologically robust analysis of obesity prevalence in the US from 1990 to 2022. This analysis also includes forecasts of obesity trends in the country up to the year 2035. The researchers utilized modeling techniques from the Global Burden of Disease project, which provide highly reliable estimates of disease burden. However, the current model for forecasting US obesity relies on the assumption that pre-2022 trends will continue without any external influences. This assumption does not account for unexpected exogenous shocks that could fundamentally alter the current trajectory. A prime example of such a significant external impact is the rapid proliferation of GLP-1 receptor agonists, which are modern medications for weight loss and diabetes. This factor already represents a demonstrated disruption to the projected development of obesity rates.