Association of armed conflict and global measles cases: A structural equation modeling analysis of 193 countries from 2000 to 2023

The study examined the relationship between armed conflict, population displacement, and socioeconomic development on measles occurrence in 193 countries during 2000 to 2023. Researchers analyzed 4,632 country-level observations using panel regressions and structural equation modeling. Results showed that higher battle-related deaths were associated with increased measles cases, with approximately 2,500 additional reported cases for every 3,700 battle-related deaths. Displaced populations and armed conflict reduced countries' socioeconomic development, resulting in further increases in measles occurrence. Socioeconomic development had the strongest protective effect, with its improvement associated with a 32 to 34 percent reduction in measles cases. The authors conclude that mitigating infectious disease risks in unstable settings requires a dual strategy: preserving healthcare and education systems while integrating displaced populations into routine immunization programs.