Progesterone and hCG in expectant management success in tubal ectopic pregnancy: retrospective single-centre cohort study

The study analyzed 91 cases of tubal ectopic pregnancy (TEP) managed at a single centre over three years to determine whether serum progesterone levels were associated with treatment outcome. Successful expectant management was completed in 23 percent of patients (21 cases). Progesterone levels in the expectant management group were significantly lower (median 3 nmol/L) compared to the group requiring surgical or medical treatment (median 17 nmol/L). ROC curve analysis showed that progesterone, first hCG, and peak hCG had AUC values of 0.766, 0.814, and 0.811, respectively. The combination of progesterone with first hCG achieved an AUC of 0.835 in predicting successful expectant management. Lower progesterone levels were associated with successful expectant management of TEP; however, they did not outperform hCG alone.