Spatiotemporal Modelling of Bacterial Meningitis Outbreaks using Climatic Drivers in Africa

The African meningitis belt comprising 26 countries experiences regular seasonal epidemics of bacterial meningitis, predominantly occurring during the October to April dry season. Researchers developed a Bayesian spatiotemporal model based on data from 2003 to 2022 to examine the impact of climatic variables on meningitis occurrence at district level across Africa. The model incorporated factors such as rainfall, air humidity, wind speed and direction, aerosol optical depth, and temperature. Results showed that zonal wind strength and aerosol optical depth have a positive effect on epidemic occurrence, while humidity has a negative effect. Temperature exhibits a non-linear relationship with meningitis, with risk peaking at temperatures between 37 to 38 degrees Celsius. The interaction between wind direction and aerosol levels highlights the role of Harmattan winds in increasing meningitis risk. The study confirmed that climatic factors have a significant impact on meningitis occurrence even at the continental level.