Nipah vaccine and monoclonal antibody introduction: Understanding endemic and at-risk country perspectives to inform demand forecasting

Nipah virus is a dangerous pathogen causing severe and often fatal disease in humans, designated by the World Health Organization as a pathogen with pandemic potential. The study examined ten countries (Australia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) through interviews with stakeholders. In the expected outbreak scenario, global annual demand for vaccine or monoclonal antibodies would range from approximately 800 to 5,000 doses, with countries preferring reactive use and ring vaccination strategies. In expanded scenarios, preventive campaigns for healthcare workers and rural populations would require approximately 410,000 to 6,300,000 doses. The study found that the market for Nipah countermeasures will not be commercially viable without external financing and stockpile mechanisms to maintain demand between sporadic outbreaks.